Study: Canadian Cities Least (and Most) Affected by Climate Change

Four in 10 Canadians (39%) say climate-related risks such as wildfires, floods, heatwaves, and storms will affect where they choose to live in the next five years, per a BMO survey. These concerns make sense, given that Canada’s climate change is warming at a rate two times higher than the global average, per the Canadian government. Some regions are more impacted than others, too, experiencing more frequent or extreme weather events related to climate change. 

Residents in cities that are more resilient to climate change, by contrast, may feel safer from the health and financial impacts of global warming. Climate-resilient cities often have protective geographic features that may blunt the worst impacts of climate change. Cities near a body of water, for example, may have a more secure water supply and lower risks of drought. But these benefits might also be offset by flooding that is more frequent or severe than what landlocked cities will face.

So which Canadian cities are climate resilient: best equipped to survive and thrive in the face of global warming? Our new study investigates key climate data for the 20 most populous Canadian cities to identify which are most affected by — or most protected from — the threats of climate change.

Key Findings:

• The top climate-resilient city overall is Victoria, BC, thanks to some of the lowest risks of flooding and drought. Residents of Victoria are 72% less likely, on average, to be impacted by river flooding and 83% less likely to face a drought than the other cities we ranked.
• The top 5 cities are all located directly on a body of water: the Pacific Ocean (Victoria, BC and Vancouver, BC), a lake (Kelowna, BC), or rivers (Quebec City, QC and Ottawa, ON). Proximity to water can be a protective climate factor against drought and water stress.
• Four of the five least climate-resilient cities are located along Lake Ontario: Hamilton, Oshawa, St. Catharines, and Toronto. Sharing a water supply across populous cities is likely to stretch resources, making it likely these cities will face a water shortfall by 2050. More frequent or extreme flooding also means Ontarians in these cities are twice as likely to be impacted by riverine floods than the overall average across all 20 cities.

Study Overview

Climate change and the extreme temperatures and weather events caused by rising temperatures are having direct and devastating impacts on cities. However, not all cities feel the same impact; climate-resilient cities may have a lower risk of extreme weather events and their impacts. 

We collected and analyzed key climate change risk data for the 20 most populous Canadian cities and scored them on eight measurements of their climate risks and mitigations:

• Water scarcity: Projected stress on water supplies and risks of drought
• Extreme weather: Flooding (from coastlines or rivers), wildfires, hurricanes and extreme heat
• Climate rebates and credits: The number of financial incentives available to offset resident’s costs of home energy efficiency upgrades

Cities were assessed and scored for each data point, and all 20 cities were ranked by their overall climate resiliency score.

5 Most Climate-Resilient Canadian Cities

1. Victoria, BC

Located on Canada’s Pacific coast, Victoria has a solid water supply and low risks of drought and extreme heat. Despite this proximity to water, Victoria has a lower risk of floods and hurricanes.

Residents of Victoria (and other BC cities) can also take advantage of 37 energy efficiency credits and rebates offered in British Columbia to offset the costs of upgrading homes to be energy efficient. 

The city of Victoria is also taking action against climate change with local initiatives. These include targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050 (compared to 2007 levels) and transition to 100% renewable energy.

2. Kelowna, BC

Located on Okanagan Lake, Kelowna’s inland location protects it from coastal flooding and hurricanes. This puts Kelowna at a lower risk for droughts and extreme heat, and is projected to have secure water access through 2050. 

Kelowna has also developed city-level climate resiliency strategies, including a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 0% by 2050. The Sustainable Urban Forest Strategy aims to manage and expand Kelowna’s urban forest, which will help cool and filter the air and divert floods. 

While Kelowna is less impacted by extreme weather, it still faces climate change challenges. In 2017 and 2018, record spring rainfall caused historic flooding in Kelowna, followed by dry summers that contributed to local droughts and wildfires. British Columbia has already reported more than 875 wildfires in 2024, many in the same region as Kelowna.

3. Vancouver, BC

The top seaport on Canada’s Pacific coast, Vancouver offers a temperate coastal climate paired with a low risk of hurricanes, compared to the Canadian Atlantic coast. Vancouver also has stable water supplies, with a low risk of water stress and drought. 

Even so, rising sea levels caused by climate change are expected to directly impact Vancouver. Sea levels in the city are projected to rise 1.4 meters by 2100, increasing the city’s high risks of coastal and riverine flooding. Vancouver’s coastal floods impact 4 in 10,000 residents every year, on average, the most of any city we surveyed.

Fortunately, Vancouver is taking action to address climate change with strategies focused on reducing carbon pollution, managing water and rainwater, and expanding and protecting the city’s urban forest. Vancouver residents also shouldn’t overlook the wide array of financial incentives British Columbia offers for residents making energy-efficient upgrades to their homes.

4. Quebec City, QC

Sitting on the north shore of the St. Lawrence River, Quebec City is another locale shielded from some climate risks thanks to its access to a body of water. Quebec City has a secure water supply through 2050, as well as a low risk of drought and wildfires. 

Quebec City still faces some climate challenges, however, such as mid-level risks of extreme heat, flooding and hurricanes. Fortunately, the Quebec province offers 26 energy-efficiency rebates and credits to help locals upgrade residential homes, second only to British Columbia. 

5. Ottawa, ON

Sitting on the Ottawa River for which it’s named, Ottawa’s easy access to a water supply is projected to keep up with demand well through 2050. Ottawans are also 35% less likely to be negatively impacted by riverine flooding and 9% less likely to be impacted by droughts, compared to the average amongst all 20 cities. 

Ottawa faces some risks from climate change, such as moderate risks of wildfires and extreme heat. The city has also experienced extreme winds, snowfall, and rainfall in recent years.

5 Least Climate-Resilient Canadian Cities

Even the most climate-resilient cities in Canada face challenges and risks due to climate change. But our study also reveals which Canadian cities are most at risk for severe climate change impacts, or are already seeing more extreme weather. Here’s an overview of the lowest-ranking cities in our study, starting with the most at-risk:

• These cities had “extremely high” risks of water stress, with local water usage set to exceed water supply by 2050. 
• All of these cities were also at a high risk of wildfires and a medium risk of extreme heat events.
• Residents of the four climate-vulnerable cities in Ontario are more than twice as likely to be impacted by riverine flooding, compared to the average across all cities.

20 Canadian Cities Ranked By Climate Resiliency

Methodology

For this study, we compared the climate resiliency of the top 20 most populous cities in Canada (per the 2021 census, excluding duplicate city and metropolitan areas) by examining and ranking cities based on eight key metrics:

• (1) Projected water stress in the year 2050 from the World Resources Institute Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas, if locales follow “business as usual” water management practices. Water stress measures the ratio of total water demand to available renewable water supplies, with higher stress scores indicating more competition and scarcity of water.
• (2) Drought risk scores from the World Resources Institute Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas. Higher scores indicating droughts are more likely to occur and adversely impact local populations and property.
• (3) Riverine flood risk and (4) coastal flood risk from World Resources Institute Aqueduct Water Risk Atlas. Higher risk scores indicate a higher portion of local populations face flooding hazards, when accounting for existing flood protections. Riverine and coast flood risks were each indexed and scored separately.
• Hazard levels by city of climate-related extreme weather events: (5) hurricanes, (6) wildfires and (7) extreme heat, from ThinkHazard!. Each of these extreme weather risks was individually indexed and scored.
• (8) Number of financial incentives for energy-efficient home upgrades by province, as reported in the Main Directory of Energy Efficiency Programs in Canada.

Cities were scored on each metric and ranked by their aggregate climate resiliency score.